Venezuela is in a depressing state
Venezuela is in a depressing state. The country’s economy entirely depends on oil revenues. Low oil prices mean misery. People are upset because essential goods, including food and pharmaceuticals, are currently in short supply. Recession set in three years ago, and matters keep getting worse. About a quarter of the people are unemployed, and the IMF estimates that inflation will rise to more than 700 % this year.
Venezuela’s history is one of mismanagement. Its leaders have never managed to use the country’s resource wealth for meaningful development. Political conflict has focused on how to distribute oil money, not on how to diversify the economy.
Just like his more charismatic predecessor Hugo Chávez, who died of cancer in 2013, Maduro claims to be pursuing the interests of the poor, and pretends to be protecting the nation against foreign interests. What distinguishes their approach from the one of their predecessors, is that they spent oil revenues on social services for disadvantaged people. Doing so makes sense, but it is not enough. Neither Chávez nor Maduro have managed to facilitate the growth of sustainable industries that provide prospects beyond fossil-fuel exploitation.
In times of high oil prices, Chávez’ “socialism of the 21st century” resonated with many people. It looked stronger than it was and only worked out in the short run. There always was a serious lack of long-term investments.
In terms of governance, moreover, socialism of the 21st century looks depressingly like the authoritarian strongman rule that is only too well known in Latin America. Cronyism and corruption are as common in Caracas today as they were in the 20th century.
Apart from the economic misery, the opposition movement is driven by the regime’s blatant disrespect for constitutional principles. In recent months the country’s top judges decided that the parliament, in which opposition parties control the majority of seats, has nothing to say. They soon reversed their decision after Maduro asked them to do so. Voiding the rights of legislators was too obviously absurd. The movement that erupted in response to the judgment, however, has not abated. People are fed up with Maduro.
Maduro apparently plans to cling to power at any cost. His government recently made known that it wants to arm militias that support it. The OAS has demanded new elections. Quite obviously, such a step would be preferable to civil strife. A prudent and responsible statesman would step down and acknowledge, in view of dramatic economic misery, that his policies have not worked out. Unfortunately, Maduro is neither prudent nor acts responsibly.