Russia and Saudi Arabia have a lot in common

Syria’s civil war is drawing in ever more parties. In principle, all claim to fight the terror militia ISIS, and all state they would like the bloodshed to stop, but the conflict has been intensifying nonetheless. Obviously, some governments with stakes in the matter have other priorities. Russia and Saudi Arabia are perhaps playing the most dubious roles – and they have domestic reasons for doing so.

Hans Dembowski

15.02.2016

Russia and Saudi Arabia are very different countries with very different cultures and histories. In Syria, their governments support different sides. Both declare ISIS to be the worst enemy, but Russia seems more focused on keeping the Assad regime in power while Saudi Arabia is keen on having it toppled.

However, the two countries have some things in common that have a bearing on their Syrian involvement. The economies of both countries depend on exporting fossil fuels, and low oil prices hurt. In both countries, tiny elites benefit most from the socio-political order. Both countries are run by authoritarian governments that fear their people. Both countries have invested massively in building up their armed forces, knowing that the military can play a role in foreign as well as domestic affairs.

Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy, with a royal family that claims to be protecting the Islamic faith. Russia has an elected president who claims to “manage” democracy. He is known to hound opposition leaders and is promoting an outdated notion of national strength.

When the oil price was high and energy exports generated abundant revenues, some wealth trickled down in both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Times have become much tougher, however, and budget constraints are becoming ever more evident. It is increasingly becoming obvious, moreover, that fossil fuels are a thing of the past, not least because the interest in clean energy technology is growing fast internationally.

Accordingly, the economic outlook is bleak for Russia and Saudi Arabia. Foreign tensions help to distract attention from this issue. Russia’s leader is trying to impress his people by assuming a geostrategic role, and the Royal House of Saud is trying to rally its people by claiming to protect the Sunni faith. Neither government fears an escalation of violence in Syria as much as it fears discontent at home. Both governments understand their own weaknesses at home and are doing their best to display strength abroad. The Syrian conflict serves that purpose. I am afraid that this is one reason it will keep going on for quite some time.