Diplomats of the world unite – to help to contain Trump
A distinct pattern of Trump’s policymaking has emerged. Trump likes to undermine accepted norms and institutions, whilst leaving final decisions to others. He wants to be seen as doing something, but is shirking any responsibility for results. He neither provides leadership on details of policy nor rallies other political leaders to his cause. His approach is dangerous and reckless.
Two examples of this pattern pertain to foreign trade. Trump is raising unrealistic demands in the talks that were started to up-date the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). For example, he wants NAFTA to be reconfirmed every five years. Such a clause would make it very risky to further develop the long-term cross-border supply chains that have grown in past decades, and new ones would hardly evolve. Canada and Mexico cannot agree to this demand – but if they don’t, and NAFTA collapses as a result, Trump will blame them for the disaster he caused himself.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is similarly affected by Trump’s scheming. Its dispute settlement system is at risk because some top jobs are vacant. The White House has a say in the matter, but is dragging its feet on appointing new people to those positions. As Cecilia Malmström, the EU’s trade commissioner, told the Financial Times, Trump’s stance risks “killing the WTO from inside”.
Another example concerns nuclear proliferation. Last week, Trump declared that Iran was not living up to the pledges made in the nuclear deal. He left it to Congress to decide whether or not to impose new sanctions on Tehran. New sanctions would mean the end of the agreement that was concluded by several parties. The EU’s response was that it stands by the agreement and considers Trump’s statement an expression of domestic US politics. Indeed, European diplomats are now known to be lobbying Congress. They want to avoid sanctions. Germany, France, Britain and the EU in general want the Iran deal to be upheld. If it fails, Iran will fast build nuclear arms.
Trump is terrible at coalition building. In spring, he addressed a summit of Muslim leaders in Saudi Arabia and pretended to forge an alliance to fight terrorism. Shortly after, a massive dispute arose between Qatar, a close ally of the USA, and some of its neighbouring Sunni Arab countries, which are also allies of the USA. That crisis remains unresolved.
This week, moreover, the US administration is watching helplessly as Iraqi troops are occupying territory claimed by Kurdish separatists. Once more, both parties in this conflict are important US allies. Oh, and Trump is not getting along with Turkey, a NATO member, either. Trump’s insistence that terrorism and other problems in the Middle East are all caused by Iran is plainly wrong. An administration that does not understand the region’s complexity cannot promote lasting solutions.
It matters, of course, that Trump has seriously weakened his own diplomatic service. Important jobs in the State Department are vacant. Moreover, he keeps making fun of Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state.
In this bewildering scenario, European diplomats’ approach of lobbying Congress is correct. Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives have a duty of oversight. They have not been doing much to live up to that duty, but some Republican members of Congress are speaking out. Senator Bob Corker famously warned that Donald Trump might put the nation on the path to "World War III" and likened the White House to an “adult day care centre”, where responsible people must make sure an aged person is not doing any harm. Senator John McCain recently condemned “people who would rather find scapegoats than solve problems” and warned of “half-baked, spurious nationalism.” He was obviously referring to the White House.
If foreign diplomats want to get anything done in this troubled context, they cannot engage only the Trump administration. They must turn to legislators as well, urging them finally to live up to their constitutional duties. The more coherently diplomats from many countries become involved, the more likely they are to have an impact. The embassies of developing countries should raise their voices too. That may irritate Trump, but it will boost their international standing and help them to gain influence in increasingly important global networks. Not containing the White House means to invite chaos and instability.
P.S.: It is noteworthy that Trump is taking a similar approach of undermining instead of leading in domestic affairs too. He cancelled subsidies for Obamacare as well as a temporary amnesty for people who grew up in the USA after having illegally immigrated as children. These steps undermine government policies that people depend on without replacing them with anything that might be viable in the long run. He keeps urging Congress to do something, but he is not leading.
The members of Congress are aware of the growing problems, and they have been exposed to massive campaigning from US citizens. In such a setting, additional pressure from foreign countries’ diplomats is less likely to fall on deaf ears that it would normally be.