US elections spell trouble for international community

There is no need to reiterate the complete list of Trump’s flaws here. They are well known, and have been pointed out by many journalists, including Americans. Ezra Klein wrote one day before the vote for instance: 

He is cruel, lazy, and reckless. He knows nothing of policy and has not bothered to find anything out. He is easily baited, reliant on sycophants, and prone to conspiracy theories. He is a bigot who slimed an American-born judge for his Mexican heritage and a misogynist who boasted that his celebrity gave him license to commit sexual assault. He has cast doubt on America’s commitment to the NATO alliance and offhandedly encouraged Saudi Arabia and Japan to build nuclear weapons. His business is rife with conflicts of interest, and his campaign has been amateurish and poorly managed.

This quote is only a short excerpt from Klein’s excellent essay, in which he discusses the weaknesses of US democracy. It is indeed frightening that such a man could come so far.

In terms of domestic US affairs, two predictions are obvious at this point:

• Trump will get to appoint at least one Supreme Court judge and probably more. The Supreme Court will most likely have a conservative majority for decades to come, and that majority may undo a lot of progress that was made in the past decades, concerning minority rights, for example.
• Trump has promised to “make America great again”, but that slogan is empty. He will not be able to fulfil the expectations he has raised, so his administration is likely to hound opponents, stating that they are blocking the way to greatness. That is what populists do in power.

Both predictions mean that civil liberties will be under attack.

The international impact may well be even worse. US presidents are constrained by checks and balances at home, but they are free to draft and implement foreign policy as they please. Since the USA is the world’s most powerful nation, its influence on global affairs is great. We have seen how much damage a US president can do when George W. Bush was in the White House. His approach to waging war in Afghanistan and Iraq lead to disaster for example.

What Trump has said about foreign affairs so far does not add up to any coherent philosophy. For example, he has indicated that he does not like US troops getting involved in foreign countries, but has also promised to crush ISIS by military means.

In any case, Trump is largely unpredictable, does not feel bound by his own words and pretends to fight “the establishment”. There is reason to doubt he will accept established norms of international affairs. An unpredictable super power, however, spells trouble for the international community.

One thing is clear, however. Trump’s stance is isolationist. He promises to take care of his country’s interests and seems ready to renegotiate any deal at any time if that looks advantageous. He views the world as a kind of jungle in which every national government can and should do whatever it deems best for its country with no regard for the global common good. The truth, of course, is that the USA has a strong interest in a stable world order and must contribute to bringing it about. Trump, however, suggests that global institutions are only a burden on his country.

Trump’s stance on climate change is an example. He wants to quit the Paris Agreement, and non-cooperation by the USA will surely slow down joint action at the global level. On the upside, renewable-energy technology is becoming ever more attractive in economic terms, so there is a business case for protecting the climate. However, humankind has no time to lose in protecting the climate, and President Trump means a loss of time.

I find it deeply depressing that Trump is set to become US president. My best hope, at the moment, is that Trump will prove no worse than Silvio Berlusconi was as Italian prime minister. Berlusconi was really only interested in promoting his personal interests and did not try to change Italy or Europe long term. Italy lost time under his rule, but that was it. If Trump proves to be more ambitious than Berlusconi, he will cause more damage. And US presidents are more important than Italian prime ministers anyway.